Why now?
Modi has long pushed back on attempts to define the population along traditional caste lines, previously declaring that the four “biggest castes” were the poor, youth, women and farmers – and that uplifting them would aid the entire country’s development.
But rising discontent among underprivileged castes boosted opposition parties during the 2024 national election, which delivered a shock result: although Modi won a third term, the BJP failed to win a majority in parliament, diminishing their power.
Modi’s U-turn on the caste census, his rivals claim, is a political maneuver to shore up support in upcoming state elections, particularly in Bihar – a battleground state where the issue has been particularly sensitive.
“The timing is no coincidence,” wrote M. K. Stalin, the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu state and a longtime Modi critic, in a post on X. “This sudden move reeks of political expediency.”
Bihar’s own caste survey in 2023 found there were far more people in marginalized castes than previously thought, sparking an ongoing legal battle to raise the affirmative action quotas.
Several other states took their own surveys, which the federal government said in its statement were “varied in transparency and intent, with some conducted purely from a political angle, creating doubts in society.”
The main opposition Congress party celebrated the government’s announcement, claiming Modi had bowed to their pressure. BJP leaders, meanwhile, say the opposition neglected to conduct any caste census during their years in power, and had now politicized the issue for their own gain.
The previous Congress-led government did conduct a national caste survey in 2011, but the full results were never made public, and critics alleged the partial findings showed data anomalies and methodology issues. It was also separate from the national census conducted that same year, meaning the two sets of data can’t be analyzed against each other.
Though authorities haven’t said when the new census will take place, they have enough time to refine the methodology and make sure key information is collected, said Sonalde Desai, demographer and Professor Emerita of Sociology at the University of Maryland College Park.
After the census is complete, the next battle will begin: how to use that data to shape policy.